Zimbabwe’s 29 March 2008 elections opened a new chapter in the country’s long-running political crisis. For the first time since independence in 1980, Robert Mugabe came in second in the presidential voting, and the opposition – the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) – won control of parliament from Mugabe’s ZANU-PF. Instead of allowing democracy to run its course, Mugabe fought back by withholding the presidential results and launching a vicious countrywide crackdown ahead of a 27 June run-off against MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai. But severe state repression led Tsvangirai to withdraw, and Mugabe ran as the sole candidate in a poll condemned by African observers as neither free nor fair. Mugabe started his sixth term in office on 29 June, amid a chorus of international condemnation and increasing regional pressure.
Power-sharing talks between Mugabe, Tsvangarai and Arthur Mutambara, leader of the MDC faction that split from Tsvangarai in 2005, began on 24 July, under the auspices of long-time mediator South African President Thabo Mbeki. After seven weeks of stop-start negotiations, an agreement on formation of a national unity government was signed on 15 September, providing for the division of executive powers between Mugabe and Tsvangirai and the creation of a new cabinet with posts divided between parties, and bringing welcome commitments to future constitutional, economic and social reforms.
The deal offers a chance to loosen Mugabe’s 28-year grip on power, but it also leaves significant questions unanswered. Power-sharing provisions seem to create two centres of power and, with several key issues unaddressed, considerable uncertainty hangs over implementation. The deal’s fragility was quickly underscored as parties hit deadlock over the allocation of ministries, while Mugabe’s diatribes against perceived enemies and his new MDC partners raised serious questions about his commitment to a genuine process of national reconciliation.
In the current environment, the international community must carefully calibrate its response to ensure stated commitments are translated into action. It must make clear that removing targeted sanctions against ZANU-PF hardliners will be conditional on clear steps to shift executive powers to the MDC. As a new government takes shape, international leaders must also be ready to support a comprehensive package of social and economic reforms able to start Zimbabwe’s long road to recovery.
